Global warming and its dangerous consequences


Last week it became known about the mass die-off of deer in the County, for the first time in 75 years there have recorded the outbreak. The diagnosis of anthrax was confirmed in 23 people. All in all, hospitals in Salekhard are now 90 patients with suspected disease. Died 12-year-old boy.

From the infected zone evacuated more than 160 herders. In the Yamal district has been quarantined. The regional authorities will allocate 90 million rubles for the construction of new tents.

Now, according to the Minister, is actively prevention. Already vaccinated more than 40 thousand animals. The threat of the spread of the disease there.

According to local authorities, the reason for the outbreak was unusually warm for the far North summer. Almost two months on the Yamal Peninsula held the heat to 35 degrees. Because of this began to melt the permafrost, where anthrax spores can remain active for hundreds of years.

Experts from around the world talking about the dangers of global warming, which year. Many countries have already felt the impact of this warming, but in Russia the consequences of global warming so far was not noticeable. And the emergence of anthrax – perhaps only the first bell.

Disappointing forecasts

United Nations (UN) has warned that the heat will decrease the productivity of the population in those regions of the world that are focused on agriculture.

In 43 States, particularly in the Asian region, the projected fall in GDP. So, in Indonesia and Thailand, GDP declined by 6%, India 3.2%, China up 0.8%.

However, wealthier States were less likely to risk loss of productivity because of the heat. According to UN experts, the greatest losses will incur that countries with low and middle income.

Climate change will impact mainly on human health: increase the cost of maintaining clean air, safe drinking water and sufficient food, reliable shelter.

According to the world health organization, between 2030 and 2050, climate change will cause more than 250 thousand deaths per year, despite the expected development of economic growth and progress in the field of health.

38 thousand elderly people die due to exposure to heat, diarrhoea — 48 thousand, malaria will carry 60 thousand and 95 thousand children will die from malnutrition.

The distribution pattern of precipitation will affect freshwater resources: the lack of water can affect the health of the population and increase the risk of diarrhea, which increases infant mortality. At the age of 5 are now dying about 760 thousand children a year.

Not to mention the fact that a severe drought in itself leads to hunger. The changing nature of rainfall, apparently, will reduce production of basic food products for poor regions.

By 2020 in some African countries is projected to fall to 50%, which aggravate the irregularity and insufficiency of supply. Now from lack of food die of 3.1 million people a year.

Climate change is likely to lead China to more frequent cases of schistosomiasis — a disease that is transmitted by shellfish.

Africa will prosper malaria, which kill nearly 600 thousand people a year under 5 years. The Aedes vectors of the dengue disease, because of the changing climatic conditions will begin to multiply anew, suggesting an increase in risk of dengue infection.

The UN report says that over the past 130 years, global temperatures uniformly increased about 0.85°C. But during the last 25 years has accelerated the pace of global warming, which was 0.18°C per decade. And weather events of extreme nature are occurring with greater frequency and more intense.

The increase in water level

According to American website Zillow on the real estate, the increase in water level can cause damage to the homeowners for up to $882 billion.

According to the study, whose results were published in Nature, the water level can rise more than 6 feet (1.83 meters) to the end of the century.

At such succession of events, according to a study in the state of Florida will remain abandoned home to about 1 million, or 13% of all dwellings.

And is equal to the value of $400 billion, not including losses associated with administrative and commercial buildings, and public infrastructure.

Such conclusions were made after Zillow analysts compare their own valuation of houses and forecasts of rising water levels the National oceanic and atmospheric.

Analysts have warned that the governments of different countries, not just USA, you should pay attention to this problem and to allocate funding for the construction of protection. However, even if such funding will be allocated, the damage from the rising water levels will be significant.

With milder scenarios, compiled by Zillow, if sea level rise is 2 feet (0.61 m), the losses of the United States of the value of homes will reach $74 billion, with this on Florida will have the largest loss – $17 billion.

The value of losses calculated from the number of homes that are at risk of flooding, and their cost.

In the worst scenario, new York would lose about 32,000 homes with a total value of $27 billion.

Water – a new cause of war

But there is a downside to global warming. If some regions of the Earth will suffer from excess water, others from lack of it.

And gradually, analysts say, the water will be one of those resources, the possession of which will be the real war.

As the temperature of the Earth increases, arid region will increasingly depend on groundwater, as they will become more arid. However, these resources are also being depleted — and that’s the problem.

Falls less rain, and therefore the groundwater is less than replenished.

Previous studies also indicate that the waters in different regions of the world are being depleted, and this in turn endangers agriculture.

On the other hand, scientists have discovered that the regions North of the Amazon, Africa, the area of the Missouri river in the USA and other tropical regions that become more humid.

Such conclusions were made on the basis of data obtained from NASA space satellites in the period from 2002 to 2014, notes USA Today.

During the same period, the researchers note, a separate area for the middle East, North Africa, India, China and South-Western United States became more arid.

California is a particularly striking example. Lately she struggles with a severe drought, which adversely affect agriculture and the overall economy of the state.

Such studies raise questions about how to eliminate water inequality between different regions of the world, whether water is a tradable resource, like oil and gold, in the future, how will the economy of the regions, where now there are changes related to water resources.

A decline in GDP of rich countries

The heat resistance of the rich countries, apparently due to the fact that some of them (e.g. Germany and France) are in the cooler zone of climatic optimum and therefore have a higher rate in warmer years.

At the same time, other countries (such as America and Australia) are located in more tropical regions, and their economies are suffering from increasing temperature.

If we consider a particular country, in America, for example, every hot day (within an average temperature of 24-27°C for more than 24 hours) reduces the average profit per person by 20%, according to working report of the National Bureau of economic research. Very hot days (over 30°C) reduce the profit per person by 28%.

In connection with the increase in the number of hot days either need more workers to complete the same project, or pay them extra money for overtime hours. In sectors where workers are exposed to the weather, employs 28% of the workforce of America.

Countries can, of course, to try to overcome the negative effect of warming, but artificial cooling is expensive. Singapore air conditioners consume 40% of the buildings electricity.

If nothing to do with global warming, the world will face with the growth of electricity consumption by 83% by 2100, only due to the increase in the use of air conditioners, fans and refrigerators, according to a study published in the journal PNAS.

Global warming can cause harm to the rich countries not only through the decrease in labor productivity. In addition to high temperature, climate change also leads to sea level rise and increasing extreme weather (such as hurricanes).

Due to the fact that many megacities are on the coast, they will have to build expensive protective constructions from flooding.

But even if rich countries will be able somehow to protect themselves from global warming, they will still feel it for yourself indirectly: trade vulnerable to weather regions will fall sharply, increased number of refugees.

Infrastructure of the Northern regions

It would seem that southern areas, it is clear – the drought and lack of water will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the economy of regions, and not the standard of living of the population. However, the Northern regions are also affected by climate warming that can be observed on the example of Alaska.

Over the past few years on the main highways of Alaska, a shift in the soil, and in some places it is so pronounced that appreciable unevenness on the pavement.

Along the road there are warning signs that advise drivers to slow down.

And the engineers are trying to find a solution to the problem, offering a very different, sometimes amazing options such as to place the plastic cooling pipes or insulation, the use of lighter pavement or add a layer of rocks about the size of a soccer ball.

However, all these options seem unlikely as from an economic point of view, and from the perspective of banal logic.

At the moment, the highway is the main artery that connects Alaska with civilization. This road here come the tourists, supplied products and foodstuffs, equipment for oil fields and ore.

The dark surface absorbs sunlight, and the side of the road retains water and snow.

Heat destroys the permafrost (soil, rocks, which were in a frozen state in the next two years).

However, this issue is relevant to North America only.

More than 600 scientists from different countries, including USA, Canada, Russia, China, Sweden and Argentina, in June gathered at a conference devoted to the issues of permafrost.

Today, engineers believe that the permafrost is not stable, even in the case of application of modern isolation.

Many roads that were already built, will cause greater losses, since there will be construction of new bridges and detours, if global warming were to exceed projections and will lead to a change of the standards of construction.

Experts believe that the melting of the ice caused by the warming climate has a negative impact not only on roads but also on the condition of runways at airports, buildings and pipelines, but also leads to changes in migratory flows of animals.

Global warming and disease

According to scientists, global warming will shift the habitats of different species, resulting in people, crops and domestic animals will come into contact with new pathogens. In the result, we can expect many outbreaks of disease, like the Ebola epidemic in Africa.

According to scientists, there will be many local outbreaks, which will lead to increased load on the medical services and the death of many people.

So, scientists say that over the past 30 years in the polar regions and the tropics, the contact of different ecosystems led to the invasion of parasites and other pathogenic organisms in the new habitat.

Scientists believe it is a serious problem, since many species, including man, does not have resistance to unknown pathogens. The result may be local outbreaks of new diseases with a high fatality rate.

There are scientists who believe that the outbreak of anthrax could also be the result of global warming.

Due to the high temperature destroyed the permafrost the surface is buried layer and bacilli, which remained from previous epidemics.

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