According to the updated forecast from the U.S. Geological survey, the probability that until the year 2043 in the Bay area San Francisco happens earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or above is 72 %. The chances of another underground point magnitude were as follows:
M ≥ 6.0 – 98 %
M ≥ 7.0 – 51 %
M ≥ 7.5 – 20 %
The last earthquake that caused severe damage in California, was recorded in 1994 near Los Angeles. Then an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 and subsequent aftershocks with magnitude up to 6.0 resulted in the deaths of 57 people, injuring about 8,700 people, and damage to the tens of billions of dollars. In the Bay area San Francisco the most powerful in the last hundred years has been the push of Loma Prieta” magnitude 6.9 in 1989, which killed 63 people.
A major earthquake in the Bay area of San Francisco since 1850
The new forecast is built on the basis of the old the probabilistic assessment of aftershocks for 2014, as well as improved display of active faults and information about the seismic events in the region in recent times. In compiling the report the experts took into account how well known or little studied and unknown faults in California. In addition, take into account the fact that the neighboring cracks in the earth’s crust can interact with each other.
According to David Schwartz, a geologist from the U.S. Geological survey, experts first compiled a map which basically reflects all of the faults capable of generating major earthquakes. At the same time, it recognizes that within the state there may be faults which have not yet been identified by scientists.
On the basis of earlier research in 2003, the team has given 62% of that seismic event of a magnitude 6.7 or greater will happen until 2032. As Schwartz argues, the updated forecast for the year 2016 presented to the public to encourage people to prepare for a possible disaster.