Abnormal heat and warm winters will dominate the Earth for the next five years, say climatologists who published an article in the journal Nature Communications.
“Our climate model shows that abnormally high air temperatures will remain the same for at least the next five years, and for sea temperatures this trend will be even longer,” the scientists said.
One of the consequences of global warming is the so-called extreme weather events – periods of abnormal heat in winter or cold in summer, heat waves, weekly heavy rains, droughts and other phenomena associated with “wrong” weather. For example, the flood in Krymsk in 2012 and the summer heat in Russia in 2010 are today considered to be one of the most striking examples of such phenomena.
The frequency of such phenomena in the future will only grow as the global warming progresses, and they will cover all the larger territories. This will lead, as calculations of western climatologists show, to a sharp increase in mortality – every “extra” degree of heat in the summer will increase the number of dead people by five percent.
Florian Sevellec of the University of Brest (France) and Sybren Drijfhout from the Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands, checking the work of a new methodology for calculating climatic fluctuations, came to the conclusion that the anomalous summer heat and warm winters will dominate the Earth at least five years.
This system, as scientists explain, differs from other climate models in that it is built on the basis of mathematical principles used to calculate the behavior of liquids, rocks and various quantum processes.
Unlike classical theories, it allows you to predict not only general trends and calculate the average temperatures, but also calculate the probability of occurrence of various extreme scenarios, based on past examples of such events.
Her work was tested by Drizhfhout and Sevelle, calculating how the climate changed in the last half of the century, and calculating the probability of various short-term anomalies, including recent heat waves and slowing global warming at the beginning of this century.
As these calculations showed, their model correctly predicted all these phenomena, which allowed scientists to assess what will happen in the next five years. It turned out that the abnormally high air and water temperatures, characteristic for 2016 and 2017, will remain the same throughout this time.
On average, temperatures will be above the norm by about 0.1 degrees Kelvin, which will significantly increase the frequency of droughts, heat waves and other weather anomalies associated with global warming. The situation is normalized only after 2022, although there is a 69% chance that the water in the oceans of the Earth will remain overheated for a longer time.
Anomalous heat, according to climatologists, will almost inevitable – the probability of its occurrence in 2018 and 2019-2020 exceeds 64 percent and 58 percent. In the near future, Sevelle and Drieshfhout plan to build similar forecasts for different regions of the Earth, which will help their residents prepare for the consequences of such climatic anomalies.