An international group of scientists has shown that with current trends, almost a quarter of the world’s population will be obese by 2045, and every eighth person will develop type 2 diabetes. The results of the studies are presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Vienna.
Data on the rate of obesity in all countries in the world in 2000-2014 were obtained from the World Health Organization. The population of each country was distributed according to age groups, as well as the categories characterizing the body mass index. Scientists predicted how the proportion of people in each category will change over time, and also calculated the risk of diabetes mellitus, which was calibrated in accordance with data on lifestyle, nutrition and genetic predisposition to the disease.
The researchers found that the proportion of obese people will grow from 14 percent in 2017 to 22 percent in 2045. Over the same period, the incidence of diabetes will rise to 11.7 percent, which will increase the burden on health systems around the world. Scientists believe that to prevent the spread of metabolic diseases, the incidence of obesity should be reduced to 10 percent by 2045.