The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA published a forecast for the season of Atlantic hurricanes in 2017. And it seems that the Americans will have to stock up on canned food and rubber boots. For the first time in many years, management predicts that hurricanes will be more than average.
The season of hurricanes will start from next week and will last till the end of November. Over this period will develop from 11 of 17 named weather systems, five of which will reach the status of a hurricane. To get the official name, the speed of the winds of the storm should exceed 63 km / h. To achieve the status of the hurricane – 119 km / h. Hurricanes of the third, fourth and fifth categories are characterized by a wind speed of 178 km / h. In this season the Atlantic will spawn 2-4 such giants, which will have a huge destructive force.
“The forecast reflects our expectation of a weak El Niño or its absence, average or slightly above average sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean and average or below average vertical wind shear in the same region,” says Jerry Bell from the Center Climate prediction.
A strong El Niño usually suppresses the activity of Atlantic hurricanes, containing the development of thunderstorms that these cyclones produce. A warm sea surface means more energy to feed storms, as well as additional evaporation of water into the atmosphere. Therefore, scientists fear that hurricanes in the warming climate will become more intense, although so far in the Atlantic basin there has been no jump in the hurricane activity associated with climate change.
Although the forecast refers to the first season of hurricanes with activity above the average from 2013, this is just a prediction. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports a 35% probability of an almost normal season and a 20% probability of reduced hurricane activity.
History shows that such predictions are not always true. Last year, NOAA predicted a close to the usual hurricane season. But in 2016 surprised – formed 7 hurricanes, four of which became very strong. The most memorable was, of course, the hurricane Matthew, which increased to the fifth category in just 36 hours, traversed the Caribbean, devastated Haiti and caused the largest evacuations in the history of Florida.