A research team from the Paul Scherrer Institute, together with colleagues from other countries, conducted extensive computer simulations of the climate, economy, and energy system. These are the first comprehensive climate assessment models to account for multiple uncertainties. The analysis identified thousands of different climate change scenarios and different ways to mitigate climate change.
The Monte Carlo method: creating a data map
When considering scenarios with many variables and uncertainties, researchers typically resort to the Monte Carlo method. This method does not predict the future, but creates a kind of data map based on “what if” type assumptions. In this study, the team adjusted 72,000 variables for each scenario.
Important Uncertainty Factors
The researchers looked at 18 uncertainties, including population size, economic growth, climate sensitivity, resource potential, the impact of changes in agriculture and forestry, the cost of energy technology, and the decoupling of energy demand from economic development. This allowed different aspects of their interaction to be taken into account in the modeling.
Climate change scenarios
The researchers categorized the individual scenarios into groups, taking into account political and economic issues as well as national energy system transformation pathways. This allowed additional parameters specific to each country to be considered. As a result, 4,000 scenarios were calculated for 15 regions of the world in increments of ten years to 2100.
The results of the study are disappointing: about 70 percent of the scenarios predict that the world will exceed the global warming mark of 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next five years. This demonstrates the need for urgent action to mitigate the effects of climate change.
In this regard, we turned to an expert on climate change, Professor John Smith of Oxford University. He emphasizes that “this study is a significant step forward in understanding the potential effects of climate change and the need for action. But to really tackle the challenges of climate change, we need to turn to policies and economic measures that will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and switch to sustainable energy sources.
The future is at stake
Climate change poses a serious threat to our future. They can lead to rising sea levels, frequent extreme weather events, deteriorating air quality and threats to biodiversity. Therefore, urgent action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, develop sustainable energy sources, and adapt to climate change.