“No climate catastrophe”: quadrupling CO2 will lead to a temperature increase of just 1°C

“No climate catastrophe,” the scientists say in their new study, “increasing CO2 levels will not cause significant changes in the Earth’s temperature. Increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little noticeable effect.

A new publication in the International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences concludes that the climate importance of CO2 has been over-exaggerated by IPCC (UN) scientists.

The British and two German scientists have collaborated for decades in measuring atmospheric gas concentrations using infrared absorption spectroscopy, so they are familiar with the absorption properties of these gases and are familiar with the HITRAN gas spectra database.

In the publication, the authors first find the wide variation in estimates of CO2 warming potential surprising, noting that published IPCC estimates of climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling range from 1.5 to 4.5°C.

Most of the warming comes from water vapor

In their study, the authors aim to simplify the method of reaching the climate sensitivity figure not only for CO2 but also for CH4 and N2O, and do so by determining exactly how atmospheric uptake has led to the current warming of 33 K, and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming resulting from future increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Just 0.50°C warming from CO2 doubling

The authors conclude that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50°K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively.

No “significant changes in earth temperature”

This result, the authors say, strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.

Of the 33°C warming, 29.4°C is entirely due to the absorptive effects of water vapour.

420ppm of CO2 delivers just 3.3°C of that warming, while methane and nitrous oxide are responsible for a mere 0.3°C.

“No climate emergency”

Contrary to the blitz of propaganda, there is no climate emergency or even any significant increase in temperature due to increasing levels of CO2. The climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is 0.45°C which increases to 0.5°C when the 12% feedback of water vapour is taken into account. A four-fold increase in CO2 concentrations to 1600ppm will increase temperatures by 1°C and it would take around 800 hundred years to reach that point at the current rate of CO2 level increases.

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