On May 12, a faint coronal solar mass ejection from the Sun struck Earth. This was not even a flare, but a thread of magnetism torn away from the Sun, in the cloud from which our planet had fallen. Scientists have announced that this event will pass unnoticed by Earth. It was thought that perhaps it would cause faint auroras, but no more than that. So how did a strong geomagnetic storm of the G3 (Kr7) level come about?
No one expected a geomagnetic storm of this level from this KVM event! No one expected the Kr index to reach 7.
And when I say nobody, I mean nobody predicted it: not NASA, not NOAA, not ESA, not IPS in Australia, and these are the leading space weather tracking and forecasting services!
The peak velocity of the plasma cloud from the ejection reached 500 km/s (purple line below).
This is slightly stronger than the standard solar wind, but weak for a coronal mass ejection. This flux was not dense, and the ejected strands of magnetism are unlikely to have provoked a geomagnetic storm of this magnitude. That’s exactly why all the space weather forecasting services totally didn’t expect what was going to happen.
“There is absolutely nothing in the history of space weather to expect a strong geomagnetic storm from a weak plasma flow caused by the eruption of a small plasma filament,” is how the “space meteorologists” justify their mistake.
While the G3 / KP7 storm itself is not terrible for our civilization, the fact that Earth’s ever weakening magnetosphere could not handle such a weak solar event (plasma cloud) is troubling, especially considering that our planet’s magnetic field was calm at the time – there were no previous shocks or plasma flows from coronal holes.”
So what happened?
The best explanation and the most obvious one is that the magnetic field of the Earth is weaker than scientists think or are forced to claim (and tell us). Much weaker and unstable.
Back in 2000, scientists knew that the Earth’s magnetic field had lost 10 percent of its strength since the 1800s. Another 5 percent had been lost by 2010. A further acceleration in the power drop occurred in recent years, 2015 and 2017, but we everyday people were not privy to the data on the additional power loss of the Earth’s “magnetic shield).
Given the last reliable information we have from 2010, our magnetic field should have handled the impact of this weak emission much better than it actually did.
What happens if the next shock is not just a faint cloud of plasma from a detached strand of magnetism, but a powerful flare directed at the Earth?
What happens when an X-class solar flare is launched in our direction?
The sun is capable of much more, especially now as it continues to gain momentum in the 25th solar cycle.
The solar maximum of the 25th cycle won’t come until 2024/25, which means we have another four or so years of increasing threat ahead of us.
Moreover, solar activity is extremely low right now. The “Solar Minimum of Cycle 24” continues, but it is this period of transition between low and strong activity that is the most unpredictable and dangerous. Even with little or no activity, the Sun can suddenly produce a powerful X-class flare.
What does this mean?
Nothing good and even the “space meteorologists” admit it, who pensively write that if indeed the severity of this recent geomagnetic event (huh, what else?) is caused by a weakening of our planet’s magnetic field, then we will not survive the coming 25th cycle of an “Active Sun with many active zones (spots).
The Earth’s magnetic field, our only shield protecting all life on the planet from destructive cosmic radiation and from powerful solar flares – is actually no longer working. It cannot even reflect a ball thrown at us, and what will happen when not soft balls, but bullets or shells fly? I think the comparison is clear enough for everyone to understand the implications.
And in the meantime, another spot (active zone) is about to appear on the Sun. NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft is tracking an ultraviolet hot spot on the far side of the Sun – probably a sunspot. If so, active zones capable of powerful flares will be orbiting above the southeastern limb of the Sun this weekend.
Starting today, all life on planet Earth, is not protected from flares by anything. It’s just a lottery. The question is not whether it will or will not (a flare), the only question is how powerful it will be and whether it will be directed at the Earth.
