The estimated probability of the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence

American astrophysicist Brian Lucky estimated the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations in the observable Universe.

Based on the assessment of the probability of civilizations in the proper place, and using Bayesian inference, Varnishes showed that with a probability of 18% aliens exist in the observable Universe.

Depending on the combination of parameters required for the emergence of intelligent life, the probability of its existence in the world ranges from 1.4 to 48 percent.

As factors determining the emergence of civilization, the scholar calls the type of light, the mass of the planet and the distance between her and the star, as well as the evaluation of the diversity of genetic material for the emergence of different forms of life.

According to earlier scientists, the human civilization is unique in the observable Universe only when the likelihood of intelligent life on a suitable exoplanet equal to ten to the minus 22-degree.

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